What's changed since you last read your notes, and two places where the wiring doesn't quite match the data.
Kevin Warsh is the sitting Fed Chair. His hawkish Jackson Hole speech (28 Aug) moved September hike odds from ~55% to ~60% — and the Fed followed through: 16 Sep, +25bp to 3.75–4.00%, first hike since 2023, dot plot pointing to one more this year. This is now your best live example of the "hawkish speech → markets" mechanism (see §2), because you can narrate what actually happened rather than the theory alone.
The US Treasury tripled its long-bond buyback size (to $6bn/operation, 10–30Y sector) — a liquidity-support operation funded by new issuance, not "reducing debt," driven by fading foreign demand (China and Japan both trimming UST holdings). The US 30Y sits near a 19-year high, ~5.2–5.3% — nowhere close to 7%. The "sub-7%" figure in your notes is almost certainly India's 10Y G-sec (see §3.1), which the RBI is fighting to hold under 7% via OMO sales — it just broke that level. Keep the three levers separate: Treasury (issuance/liquidity), Fed (policy rate), RBI (defending a yield).
Brent at $104.45 is a geopolitical supply-disruption story (Middle East attacks on facilities and tankers, >10mb/d of Gulf output shut in) — not an OPEC+ cut. If anything, OPEC and the IEA had been cutting 2026 demand outlooks going in, i.e. fundamentals pointed to oversupply. Your Russia-output and Venezuela figures don't show up in current reporting — don't cite them as hard numbers; lead with the Middle East disruption story, which is well documented. Detail in §7.1.
Both are down hard from January 2026 peaks: gold $5,589 → $4,298 (−23%), silver $121.62 → $64.2 (−47%). Proximate cause: the same Warsh/Fed hawkish turn above. The structural bid (de-dollarization, central-bank buying) is intact underneath — the trade right now is "a rate shock overwhelmed the structural bid," not "these are still ripping." Full picture in §7.2.